On March 6, the U.S. Department of Commerce released trade data for 2018.


Data, it's interesting.


"The US trade deficit of 59.8 billion US dollars last December... In 2018, the US trade deficit expanded to 621 billion US dollars, the highest since 2008. The total trade deficit in goods amounted to 89.13 billion US dollars, a new record since the founding of the United States.


After a year of trade war, the United States recorded its largest trade deficit in goods in nearly 250 years.


It's embarrassing...


When the negotiations between China and the United States are at a critical stage, this data can shed light on some things.


At the same time, the negotiations have reached this stage, and some issues should be considered.


Let's try to analyze it.


First of all, the fact tells us that the United States will not achieve anything by pursuing trade balance in the form of trade wars.


When the United States just started the trade war last year, many people pointed out the problems in a straight cut.


The trade imbalance of the United States is a structural problem of its own economy. It is closely related to the position of the United States in the global industrial chain, the strong position of the dollar and its domestic savings rate. It is impossible to solve the problem by means of trade war.


Unfortunately, I don't know whether I can't hear it or I don't want to hear it. For a year, the United States has been talking about trade balance and constantly trying to solve the problem of trade balance by raising tariffs.


What about the results?
                                 

Facts speak louder than words.


Second, trade data may boost the willingness of the United States to reach an agreement, but negotiations may become more difficult.


The seventh round of high-level economic and trade consultation between China and the United States ended on February 24.


Now more than 10 days, how is the progress?


To be sure, the negotiations have not stopped. As the Minister of Commerce said in the "ministerial corridor":


At present, the working group is still in consultation. There are still many things to be done. It is even more necessary for the two sides to move forward and work together.


This can also be confirmed by reports from foreign media.


Ted McGinny, the U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agriculture, said on the same day that the U.S. -China economic and trade negotiations were proceeding smoothly through videoconferencing, Reuters reported on June 6. "There is a lot of discussion going on through digital video conferencing, which is also a very good and productive thing," McKinny said.


Negotiations are, of course, more difficult.


Now the US trade data come out. On the one hand, it may enhance the willingness of the US to reach an agreement, but on the other hand, the US side may increase the price of specific negotiations.


In particular, it can not be ruled out that the United States is likely to create an atmosphere conducive to reaching agreement within the United States by creating public opinion that "forces China to compromise" to increase the sense of gain within the United States.


Of course, the risk of such an approach is that it may boost antagonism between the two sides and push the negotiations in an unknown direction.


Therefore, at this time, China and the United States need to carefully push the negotiations to the final goal through the trial and exchange of details, and even the continued release of goodwill.


Like an old saying in Go:


Where chess is in trouble, you need a small point


"Xiaojian" is a steady and solid way of playing Go, so-called "Xiaojian has no evil hand".


The more complex and difficult the situation is, the more effective it will be.


Thirdly, it is necessary to calmly think about why we should talk to Americans.


I remember that when the trade war began last year, Comrade Mao Zedong was quoted the most.


"Unity through struggle means unity, while unity through concession means unity."


—— "Strategic Issues in the Current Anti-Japanese United Front"


To strive for unity through struggle is to live together.


This sentence is very classic.
                                 

But to this sentence, we often remember the struggle, but did not pay attention to unity.


Especially, why do we need unity when we are fighting a trade war with Americans?


In my opinion, this is because we insist on the principle that "there is no winner in the trade war", "if you combine the two benefits, you will get hurt in the fight".


Our truth has been painstakingly said, but the United States probably did not feel personally, at the beginning did not listen. Some people in China do not think so.


What about the results?


Now, after a year of trade war, China and the United States have returned to the negotiating table from the negotiating table.


The reason is simple, the reality is the most convincing, the fact is better than eloquence.


Looking back to the origin this year, we have actually experienced a difficult process of reasoning through struggle and persuading Americans with facts.


If China and the United States can reach a trade agreement, then as discussed in the previous article, our interest is to strive for a period of strategic opportunities to the greatest extent possible.


The time and development space we have won is to make ourselves stronger.


If we waste our energy, resources and time on confrontation and opportunities to become stronger and bigger, it is not a good deal.